Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-05-27) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	24.50%	0.00%	1.01
1	37.10%	51.40%	1.53
2	49.70%	102.90%	2.05
3	62.20%	153.90%	2.56
4	74.80%	205.30%	3.08
5	87.40%	256.70%	3.60
6	100.00%	308.20%	4.12

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.01
• % of original R0: 24.5
• % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.53
• % of original R0: 37.1
• % Increase from current: 51.4

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.05
• % of original R0: 49.7
• % Increase from current: 102.9

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.56
• % of original R0: 62.2
• % Increase from current: 153.9

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.08
• % of original R0: 74.8
• % Increase from current: 205.3

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.6
• % of original R0: 87.4
• % Increase from current: 256.7

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 4.12
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 308.2