Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 24.50% 0.00% 1.01
1 37.10% 51.40% 1.53
2 49.70% 102.90% 2.05
3 62.20% 153.90% 2.56
4 74.80% 205.30% 3.08
5 87.40% 256.70% 3.60
6 100.00% 308.20% 4.12

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.01
  • % of original R0: 24.5
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.53
  • % of original R0: 37.1
  • % Increase from current: 51.4

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.05
  • % of original R0: 49.7
  • % Increase from current: 102.9

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.56
  • % of original R0: 62.2
  • % Increase from current: 153.9

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.08
  • % of original R0: 74.8
  • % Increase from current: 205.3

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.6
  • % of original R0: 87.4
  • % Increase from current: 256.7

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.12
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 308.2